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| Grey Correlation Analysis, Tapio Decoupling Analysis, and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emissions from the Paper Industry in Fujian Province |
| Received:December 31, 2023 Revised:January 14, 2024 |
| DOI：10.11981/j.issn.1000-6842.2024.01.13 |
| Key Words:paper industry;carbon emissions;grey correlation degree;Tapio decoupling model;scenario prediction |
| Author Name | Affiliation | Postcode | | WANG Hongping | Jinshan College， Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University， Fuzhou， Fujian Province， 350002 | 350002 | | LIU Kai* | College of Materials Engineering， Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University， Fuzhou， Fujian Province， 350108 | 350108 |
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| Abstract: |
| As China’s goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 approaches， the paper industry in Fujian province， with its high energy consumption and high CO2 emissions， is facing severe pressure to reduce carbon emissions. In this study， the grey correlation model was used to calculate the correlation between total assets， total asset output rate， energy intensity， and energy structure with CO2 emissions. The Tapio decoupling model was used to determine the decoupling status between paper industry output and CO2 emissions. The STIRPAT model was used to predict CO2 emissions under four scenarios， exploring the potential of the paper industry in Fujian province to achieve the “carbon peak” goal before 2030. The results showed that： ① The total assets， total asset output value， energy intensity， and energy structure of the paper industry in Fujian province were closely related to CO2 emissions， and the correlation was relatively high. ② From 2007 to 2021， the paper industry output and carbon emissions in Fujian province showed six decoupling states， with strong and weak decoupling states in most years of the research period. The total assets and energy structure played a major driving role in carbon emission increase， while energy intensity was the main driving force for decoupling carbon emissions from industrial output. ③ During the forecast period （2022—2030）， CO2 emissions would increase rapidly under the baseline and rapid development scenarios. The growth rate of CO2 emissions under the low-carbon development scenario would be relatively low， while CO2 emissions under the strong low-carbon development scenario would show a very slow upward trend. Finally， this study provided recommendations for reducing carbon emissions of the paper industry in Fujian province and promoting sustainable development of the paper industry. |
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